2013 Nebelhorn Trophy Post-Game Analysis – Dance

With each country submitting only one entry each per discipline, Nebelhorn Trophy provided an opportunity for a few skaters from the U.S. and Canada to make an individual statement. This was most certainly true in dance, with Americans Madison Hubbell & Zach Donohue and Canadians Alexandra Paul & Mitch Islam capturing the top spots in the short dance and two of three podium berths. Making the contest more intriguing: both couples train together at the Detroit Skating Club under Anjelika Krylova, Pasquale Camerlengo, and Massimo Scali, and both are in strong contention to snag an Olympic spot on their respective national teams.

1. The Numbers — Despite technical bobbles for each couple, the competition produced more positives than otherwise for gold medalists Hubbell & Donohue and bronze medalists Paul & Islam, who traded off first-place spots in each segment. Though Hubbell & Donohue’s early training was disrupted by a concussion to Hubbell, the team’s good showing here included an ISU personal best in the free dance (90.58), almost two points beyond their previous best of 88.69 set at last year’s Trophee Eric Bompard. For Paul & Islam, the results signified a major step forward on the international scene: the team’s 59.06 in the short dance blew away their 2010 Skate Canada International-established best of 50.55, while they took top program components in the free dance, their 45.43 an upgrade from the 41.80 earned at last year’s Nebelhorn Trophy and the 43.07 earned at the 2012 U.S. International Figure Skating Classic, their previous highest from any international panel.

2. The Programs — Nebelhorn offered the first view of Hubbell & Donohue’s free dance to violinist Lucia Micarelli’s Nocturne into Bohemian Rhapsody; the team had earlier debuted their Big Bad Voodoo Daddy-scored short dance at July’s Skate Detroit, but the performance there went unrecorded and the program was, in any event, subsequently revamped in response to feedback from that event’s panel. While the first free dance run-through here was shaky, their competitive performance showcased a new approach for the team, tackling a more lyrical style than demonstrated in their prior blues-influenced and flamenco free dances and providing for more interconnected movement in their skating.

Paul & Islam, meanwhile, had unveiled their programs at August’s Thornhill Summer Skate; both dances received strong marks at that event and, choreographically, remained largely unchanged here. The only significant revision came on the free dance’s second rotational lift, shifting from an over-the-shoulder rotation, with Paul moving from horizontal to face-to-face poses, to a variation on a last season’s lift with Paul in doughnut position, a change that seemed to improve Islam’s rotational momentum and served the program’s aesthetic. Program development here, then, came more in performance quality, with the team growing the “grand” effect sought in their George Gershwin short dance while showcasing their connection in the elegant and eclectic W.E. free — and further building the power in their skating, as seen to particular effect in this practice video.

3. The Stumbles — Given the early timing of the event, it was unsurprising that both couples were beset by a few technical woes and low footwork levels; more surprising was that in each case, the errors with the greatest impact came on twizzles, a strong element for each team. In the short dance, Donohue wandered towards the end of the first set, dropping the element to a Level 3 (base value of 5.00) from a Level 4 (base value of 6.00). With a negative GOE of -0.14 additionally factored in, the team earned only 4.86 for the element. With their clean L4 free dance twizzles earning a total of 6.71, the team’s short dance score of 56.53 could have been as high as 58.38 — though such a change would not have altered the segment standings.

Twizzles did, however, impact the standings for Paul & Islam, with an error only somewhat more conspicuous than Donohue’s, but earlier in its occurrence — and thus more problematic by ISU requirements. With Paul stumbling in the first set before meeting the minimum leveled requirements, the team’s subsequent two clean sets were considered moot, and the element went uncredited for a total of 0.00. This brought them to a free dance score of 82.93, dropping them to third place in the segment and the overall competition. Like Hubbell & Donohue, Paul & Islam received a twizzle mark of 6.71 for their clean set of the competition. If duplicated, those points would have granted them a score of 89.64, second to Hubbell & Donohue’s in the free dance but high enough to maintain first place with the existing lead.

And if that twizzle math isn’t quite enough: had both teams performed that single element as projected here, all other levels and errors remaining equal, results may have given Hubbell & Donohue a razor-thin 0.26 margin of victory over Paul & Islam. However, with performance/execution the one PCS category in which Paul & Islam did not lead in the free dance, that mark for them may have been higher without a visible error, rendering the contest even closer.

4. The Takeaway — Both teams will compete again in a matter of weeks, with Hubbell & Donohue facing the rather grueling schedule of a home-based Detroit Skate America followed one week later by Skate Canada International in New Brunswick. That latter competition will also provide the next match-up between training mates, with Paul & Islam making their return Grand Prix appearance at the event. On the technical end, both teams will seek to improve upon their Finnstep and step sequence levels before their next events. While Level 3s on footwork are nearly de rigeur for the season’s first half, the Level 2s that Paul & Islam attained on both diagonal and circular free dance step sequences, and Hubbell & Donohue on their diagonal, can be improved. With both teams picking up identical L2s on their first Finnstep sequence and L3s on their second, those first and third key points (around 0:47-0:51 and 0:56-0:59 in Hubbell & Donohue’s video, and 2:17-2:21 and 2:26-2:29 in Paul & Islam’s, above) will likely be particularly drilled, as will the third key point of the second sequence (1:19-1:23 and 2:49-2:53, respectively).

Though it is difficult to make any serious scoring assessments at such an early point, with both teams enmeshed in a national battle for Olympic contention, it will be worth evaluating where they and others stand relative to their rivals as the season builds to Sochi. With other top American teams Madison Chock & Evan Bates scheduled to compete at Finlandia Trophy this week and Maia & Alex Shibutani to debut at Skate America, a clearer picture of the U.S. scene will emerge with time. Among Canadian teams, however, Kaitlyn Weaver & Andrew Poje and Nicole Orford & Thomas Williams have also made their first international season appearances, taking silver and bronze at the U.S. International Figure Skating Classic. Paul & Islam’s short dance mark here ranks closer to Weaver & Poje’s 62.61 than the 54.64 for Orford & Williams; their existing free dance mark is on par with the latter’s 82.96, but, with inclusion of twizzles, would fall neatly between that and Weaver & Poje’s 99.38.

5. The Odds and EndsBroadcast and fan recording of the ice dance victory ceremony are available, as is video of both short dance and free dance press conferences. As noted above, Hubbell & Donohue compete next at Hilton HHonors Skate America, October 18-20, while they and Paul & Islam are slated for Skate Canada International, October 25-27.