Previewing the 2016-17 Grand Prix Draft

The ISU figure skating powers-that-be meet this Wednesday and Thursday to set out the coming season’s Grand Prix assignments across six events — this year, in a minor shake-up of schedule, Skate America, Skate Canada International, Rostelecom Cup, the renamed Trophée de France, Cup of China and NHK Trophy. With only eight slots per event in each of the coupled disciplines, a maximum of 48 assignments per discipline will be filled — with far fewer available overall given the number of teams likely or guaranteed to pick up two assignments. Here’s a closer look at the North American teams you might see on this week’s entry lists.

Helpful Reading: Grand Prix of Figure Skating 2015-16 Announcement

 

Teams Guaranteed Two Assignments (top 10 Worlds finishers)

DANCE: The U.S. field is strong here: all three entries at Worlds are seeded, with Madison Hubbell and Zach Donohue having fared “worst” with a career-best sixth-place finish; they, along with medalists Maia and Alex Shibutani and Madison Chock and Evan Bates, are assured two spots each on the circuit, with the Shibutanis and Chock and Bates fated to miss one another until, perhaps, the Final given general requirements intended to bar 1-3 finishers from receiving the same assignments. But Canada too had two of its three entries place in the top 10, further guaranteeing Kaitlyn Weaver and Andrew Poje (5th) and Piper Gilles and Paul Poirier (8th) another two assignments apiece.

PAIRS: All three members of Canada’s World team (champions Meagan Duhamel and Eric Radford, Lubov Iliushechkina and Dylan Moscovitch [7th], and Kirsten Moore-Towers and Michael Marinaro [8th]) can breathe easy, while U.S. newlyweds Alexa Scimeca and Chris Knierim (9th) can follow up their Grand Prix Finalist season with another shot at qualification.

 

Guaranteed One, May See Two (World Junior medalists, top 24 World Standings, top 24 Season’s Best)

DANCE: A handful of additional teams are in line to pick up at least one, and potentially two, assignments by dint of meeting other requirements. If World Junior gold and silver medalists Lorraine McNamara and Quinn Carpenter and Rachel and Michael Parsons opt to move up to the senior circuit, their hardware assures them of one spot apiece, but with strong positions in both World Standings (#14 for McNamara & Carpenter, #21 for the Parsons) and Season’s Best (#14, #15), at least one couple stands a fair chance of earning two.

Also in good stead are past World Junior champs Kaitlin Hawayek and Jean-Luc Baker, whose #15 WS and #19 SB positions belie a difficult 2015-16 season marked by mishap in the fall and a disappointing fifth-place finish at U.S. Nationals. The team who finished one spot ahead of them nationally, however, are in a weaker international position. Anastasia Cannuscio and Colin McManus had their strongest season yet in 2015-16, with an active international slate pushing them for the first time into the top 24 of WS at #23. But short of a host selection, a #36 spot on the SB list will likely hold them to one spot in outright assignments.

Canada’s third Worlds entry — and 2016 national bronze medalists — are also in a tricky spot. Competing at Four Continents edged Élisabeth Paradis and François-Xavier Ouellette just into the top 24 for the first time in their own careers, ascertaining a third season on the Grand Prix scene after relying on Skate Canada’s host selection in 2015. But the team sits #30 on the Season’s Best list, and a tough Worlds debut, where the team missed the cut for free dance qualification, could translate to selection by the host fed of a more competitive event.

PAIRS: With injury taking them off the 2016 World team, Canadian silver medalists and Grand Prix Finalists Julianne Séguin and Charlie Bilodeau find themselves in this less-assured category — but with the successes of the last two seasons securely positioning them at #14 in WS and #9 in SB, they should be looking ahead to an active fall circuit.

U.S. national champs Tarah Kayne and Danny O’Shea (#12 WS, #20 SB) and bronze medalists Marissa Castelli and Mervin Tran (#21 WS, #24 SB) should find themselves in a similar spot. Given the smaller international pairs field compared with dance, teams with two roads to a guaranteed assignment — and solid-enough national and international results to back up their standings — have almost uniformly picked up two berths.

One team with a murkier status is 2015 U.S. silver medalist pair Haven Denney and Brandon Frazier, who missed the 2015-16 season with injury, dropping them to #27 in WS and barring them from obtaining a new Season’s Best. Per the ISU’s 2015-16 Grand Prix announcement, they would qualify as a “Return Couple,” thanks to their 12th-place finish at 2015 Worlds, and would be deemed eligible for a host assignment, as any pair who doesn’t meet the standard requirements for inclusion — but, further, “may be considered as an Organizing Member’s Choice and will be ranked in the list of Season’s Best scores by taking the Season’s Best points of their most recent season, if proof is given in writing by their Member that they intend to continue their competitive career and their return is announced and confirmed by the date of the annual Selection Meeting.” [emphasis mine] Their 183.84 at 2014 Skate America would slot the duo into #19 on the current Season’s Best list.

 

Potential Host Picks

DANCE: Two prominent Canadian couples currently sit outside the conventional assignment margins. After a limited 2015-16 season, with injury and a fourth-place nationals finish minimizing international competition, Alexandra Paul and Mitch Islam sit just outside the top 24 in both categories, ranking #26 in both WS and SB. A good Challenger showing could move the team up the alternates list; a host selection at Skate Canada, however, is also not out of the question, especially given retirements across the mid and lower Canadian ranks.

But it’s the return of World and Olympic champions Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir that’s raised much discussion regarding assignments across the board. Via the ISU’s comeback clause, Virtue and Moir can be virtually guaranteed two spots, though one will likely come at Skate Canada; if, however, the pair — who, out since the 2014 Olympics, have no standing on either Season’s Best or World Standings lists — opted, for whatever reason, to earn their way as alternates with an expectedly strong Challenger score, Skate Canada would be their only certain assignment. The former choice is likeliest, especially, perhaps, given the team’s past Grand Prix Final fortunes and possible goals.

There are, too, the younger teams potentially angling for an eventual host selection or alternate assignment. Canada’s Mackenzie Bent and Dmitre Razgulajevs (#58 WS, #44 SB) and Madeline Edwards and ZhaoKai Pang (#61 WS) are both moving into the senior ranks; Bent and Razgulajevs completed their first season together with a junior national title and ninth at Junior Worlds, while Edwards and Pang missed an originally-scheduled senior debut due to serious injury for Edwards. It’s likeliest that both will rely more on Challenger assignments as did last year’s junior-to-senior couples in Brianna Delmaestro and Timothy Lum and Lauren Collins and Shane Firus, but if Skate Canada leaves open a TBD, summer competition may tell the story. In the U.S., new seniors Elliana Pogrebinsky and Alex Benoit, who sit #34 in WS but finished a strong fourth at Junior Worlds, are in a similar spot.

Also in the U.S. running could be Danielle Thomas and Daniel Eaton, who passed a busy international season, including a Challenger event victory, before finishing sixth at their first U.S. Nationals as a team; they currently sit #63 in World Standings and #53 on the Season’s Best list.

PAIRS: A slew of good U.S. pairs find themselves with no guarantee of assignment, meaning competition for a Skate America host spot — and a battle in the Challenger circuit to contend for alternate positioning — is on. Two-time pewter medalists Madeline Aaron and Max Settlage were held to only one international event in 2015-16 due to injury, leaving them to sit #39 in WS and #42 on the SB list. Fifth-place national finishers Jessica Calalang and Zack Sidhu (#28 WS, #35 SB) and new pair Jessica Pfund and Joshua Santillan (#75 WS, #34 SB; seventh at Nationals) can also make their case for inclusion, alongside a team such as sixth-place finishers Erika Smith and AJ Reiss, who did not compete internationally in their debut season but made a strong case at home for added attention in this coming year. U.S. Figure Skating may opt to leave a TBD spot at Skate America contingent on showings at summer competition.

With the split of fifth-place National finishers Vanessa Grenier and Maxime Deschamps, Canada’s internationally-experienced pairs have dwindled in number; Hayleigh Bell and Rudi Swiegers, who appeared on last year’s circuit, have also retired from competition. That leaves Brittany Jones and Joshua Reagan (#65 WS; no Challenger or Grand Prix events in 2015), sixth at Nationals, as a possible host pick option, should Skate Canada give the nod to a non-guaranteed team — or they may opt to wait out the summer circuit, with new and untested pairs like Camille Ruest and Drew Wolfe also ready to demonstrate their potential.

The Overall Contenders

DANCE

  • Maia Shibutani / Alex Shibutani (12 Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2011, 2015 NHK Trophy)
  • Madison Chock / Evan Bates (nine Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2014 Skate America, Rostelecom Cup, 2015 Skate America)
  • Kaitlyn Weaver / Andrew Poje (19 Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2014 Skate Canada International, NHK Trophy, 2015 Skate Canada International, Rostelecom Cup)
  • Madison Hubbell / Zachary Donohue (nine Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2015 Trophée Eric Bompard [short dance only])
  • Piper Gilles / Paul Poirier (eight Grand Prix assignments; best finish 2nd at 2014 Skate Canada International, Trophée Eric Bompard, 2015 TEB [short dance only])
  • Lorraine McNamara / Quinn Carpenter (eight Junior Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2013 JGP Minsk, 2015 JGP Colorado Springs, JGP Copernicus Stars)
  • Rachel Parsons / Michael Parsons (nine Junior Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2015 JGP Bratislava, JGP Croatia Cup)
  • Kaitlin Hawayek / Jean-Luc Baker (four Grand Prix assignments; best finish 3rd at 2014 NHK Trophy; withdrew from 2015 Cup of China)
  • Anastasia Cannuscio / Colin McManus (four Grand Prix assignments; best finish 5th at 2014, 2015 Skate America)
  • Élisabeth Paradis / François-Xavier Ouellette (three Grand Prix assignments; best finish 4th at 2014 Skate America)
  • Alexandra Paul / Mitchell Islam (nine Grand Prix assignments; best finish 4th at 2010 Skate Canada [2nd free dance]; withdrew from 2010 Cup of Russia, 2011 NHK Trophy, in advance from 2015 NHK Trophy)
  • Elliana Pogrebinsky / Alex Benoit (debuting at senior; four Junior Grand Prix assignments; best finish 3rd at 2015 JGP Logroño)
  • Mackenzie Bent / Dmitre Razgulajevs (debuting at senior; two Junior Grand Prix assignments; best finish 2nd at JGP Colorado Springs)
  • Madeline Edwards / ZhaoKai Pang (debuting at senior; seven Junior Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2014 JGP Nagoya Cup)
  • Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir (16 Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2007 Skate Canada International, 2009 Trophée Eric Bompard, Skate Canada International, 2011 Skate Canada International, Trophée Eric Bompard, 2012 Skate Canada International, Rostelecom Cup, 2013 Skate Canada International, Trophée Eric Bompard; withdrew in advance from 2008 Skate Canada International and NHK Trophy, 2010 Skate Canada International and TEB)

PAIRS

  • Meagan Duhamel / Eric Radford (11 Grand Prix assignments; best finish 1st at 2014 Skate Canada International, NHK Trophy, 2015 Skate Canada International, NHK Trophy)
  • Lubov Iliushechkina / Dylan Moscovitch (two Grand Prix assignments; best finish 5th at 2015 NHK Trophy)
  • Kirsten Moore-Towers / Michael Marinaro (four Grand Prix assignments; best finish 3rd at 2015 Skate Canada International)
  • Alexa Scimeca / Chris Knierim (seven Grand Prix assignments; best finish 2nd at 2015 Skate America)
  • Tarah Kayne / Danny O’Shea (four Grand Prix assignments; best finish 4th at 2015 Rostelecom Cup; withdrew in advance from 2014 Cup of China and Rostelecom Cup)
  • Julianne Séguin / Charlie Bilodeau (two Grand Prix assignments; best finish 3rd at Skate America, Trophée Eric Bompard [short program only])
  • Marissa Castelli / Mervin Tran (two Grand Prix assignments; best finish 4th at 2015 Skate Canada International)
  • Haven Denney / Brandon Frazier (four Grand Prix assignments; best finish 2nd at 2014 Skate America)
  • Jessica Calalang / Zack Sidhu (three Grand Prix assignments; best finish 5th at 2014 Rostelecom Cup)
  • Madeline Aaron / Max Settlage (three Grand Prix assignments; best finish 4th at 2014 Skate Canada International; withdrew in advance from 2015 Cup of China)
  • Jessica Pfund / Joshua Santillan (one Grand Prix assignment; 8th at 2015 Skate America)
  • Brittany Jones / Joshua Reagan (one Grand Prix assignment; 7th at 2014 Skate Canada International)

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